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Investment Insights are written by
Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
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Published: 04-07-2016The first quarter began with a bang and ended with a whimper. At least, that’s the message from the VIX (volatility index—see below). Bouncing around an elevated level of around 28 for much of January and February, the VIX fell 50% to 14 by the end of March.
At a high level, we have maintained a pretty neutral stance in our portfolios. I didn’t think the sell-off in the beginning of the year was the beginning of a new bear market, so we held our ground. The March rally brought global equities all the way back to flat for the year, but I don’t see cause to celebrate much. The global economy is sputtering along, and I haven’t seen any serious discussion, much less action, toward addressing the long-term declines in productivity and growth rates.
Valuations are fine, generally in-line with where they “should” be (see table below, courtesy of J.P. Morgan). I suppose oil and (US) homes look a bit cheap, and government bonds expensive, but take valuation measures as the blunt instruments they are. Equities, broadly, are close to fair value, in my opinion.
So, our models, at the high level, are in-line. There are some interesting, idiosyncratic ideas we are seeing around the world, but I don’t (yet) feel compelled to add risk broadly, or to bury gold in the backyard. Still in neutral.
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The Present is the Future (at least in bond land) 10-27-2014
In our long-term assumptions, we generally assume that the total return in fixed income is pretty close to its starting ...
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GDP 12-23-2014
Normally, I wouldn't comment on any single economic release, but today's GDP revision adds to the mounting evidence of a ...
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I'm Swiss 10-13-2015
No question, this has been a challenging year. Virtually every financial asset class is struggling. Stocks are down, ...
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